Forex Market: USD/PLN daily trading outlook

Yesterday's trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.8009-3.8355. The pair closed at 3.8169, going up 0.40% on a daily basis. It has been the 12th gain in the past 22 trading days and also a third consecutive one. In addition, the daily high has been the highest level since March 24th, when a high of 3.8428 was registered. USD/PLN has advanced 2.43% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of decline. In March it plunged 6.78%, or the most in at least 2 years.

At 6:46 GMT today USD/PLN was inching up 0.06% on the day to trade at 3.8192. The pair touched a daily high at 3.8213 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 3.8156 at 6:25 GMT.

On Friday USD/PLN trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

New York Empire State Manufacturing Index

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index probably improved to a value of 1.00 in April, according to the median forecast by experts, from 0.62 in March. If market expectations were met, this would be the highest index reading since July 2015, when the gauge was reported at a level of 3.86.

In March the gauges for new orders and shipments registered levels well above 0.00 for the first time in the past several months, while employment levels remained stable. In addition, the six-month outlook improved, as the index for future new orders reached a level unseen in over a year.

Index readings above 0.00 are indicative of improving business conditions in the region. Higher-than-anticipated index values will usually have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to release the official reading at 12:30 GMT.

Industrial Production

Industrial output in the United States probably rose at a monthly rate of 0.1% in March, according to market expectations, following a 0.5% contraction in the prior month.

In February output in the US mining sector decreased 1.4%, while contracting at an average pace of 1.3% during the last 6 months.

The gauge for utilities registered a 4.0% monthly decrease in February, as demand for heating diminished due to unusually warm weather.

Manufacturing production, which accounts for almost three quarters of total industrial production, rose 0.2% in February.

In case the general index of industrial activity advanced more than anticipated in March, this would be dollar positive. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is to release the production data at 14:15 GMT.

Thomson Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the United States improved in April. The preliminary reading of the corresponding index, which usually comes out two weeks ahead of the final data, probably rose to 92.5 during the current month from a final reading of 91.0 in March. The latter came well above the preliminary reading of 90.0, which was reported on March 18th. If expectations were met, April's reading would be the highest since December 2015, when a level of 92.6 was reported.

The sub-index of current economic conditions fell to a final reading of 105.6 in March, while matching the preliminary value, but falling from a final 106.8 in the preceding month.

The sub-index of consumer expectations came in at a reading of 81.5, up from a preliminary value of 80.0 in March, but down from a final reading of 81.9, registered in February.

Participants in the March survey expected that the rate of inflation will be at 2.7% during the next year, or matching the rate in the preliminary release, but higher than the expected rate in the February survey.

In case the gauge of consumer sentiment increased at a steeper pace than projected in April, this would have a moderate-to-strong bullish effect on the greenback. The preliminary reading is due out at 14:00 GMT.

Fed's Evans speech

At 16:30 GMT the Fed President for Chicago, Charles Evans, is expected to take a statement. His remarks may introduce limited-to-moderate volatility of the currency pairs containing the US dollar.