Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for April 18th

Friday's trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7682-0.7733. The pair closed at 0.7725, going up 0.38% on a daily basis. It has been the 12th gain in the past 22 trading days and also a second consecutive one. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 2.25% to its value during the current week. It has been the 9th gain in the past 15 weeks and also the steepest one since the week ended on March 6th. AUD/USD has gone up 0.87% so far during the current month, following two consecutive months of gains. In March the pair appreciated 7.22%.

On Monday (April 18th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

New Motor Vehicle Sales

At 1:30 GMT on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report on new motor vehicle sales in the country for March. New vehicle registrations decreased 0.1% to 97 921 vehicles in February from a month ago, as sales of sport utility vehicles fell 0.6% and those of other vehicles decreased 1.1%. On the other hand, sales of passenger vehicles went up 0.8%.

New vehicle sales, as an indicator, reflect how strong consumer confidence is. In case consumers are willing to make large-ticket purchases, such as new automobiles, this suggests they have a greater confidence in regard to their financial prospects. However, as new car sales account for a small portion of the Australian Gross Domestic Product, a potential increase in March sales would have a limited bullish effect on the Australian dollar.

United States

Fed's Dudley speech

At 12:30 GMT the Fed President for New York, William Dudley, is expected to take a statement. His remarks may introduce limited-to-moderate volatility of the currency pairs containing the US dollar.

NAHB Housing Market Index

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably rose to 59.0 in April, according to market expectations, from 58.0 in March. If so, this would be the 22nd consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on April 15th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to USD/CHF (0.6383, or strong)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (0.5493, or strong)
AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.3675, or moderate)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (-0.3267, or moderate)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (-0.6145, or strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.6224, or strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

2. AUD/USD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to EUR/USD and USD/CAD during the week.

3. The correlation between AUD/USD and NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD was moderate.