Forex Market: GBP/BGN trading outlook for February 22nd

Friday's trade saw GBP/BGN within the range of 2.5086-2.5322. The pair closed at 2.5315, edging up 0.27% on a daily basis. It has been the 7th gain in the past 15 trading days and also a third consecutive one. In weekly terms, GBP/BGN added 0.39% to its value during the current week. It has been the 2nd gain in the past 13 weeks. The pair has depreciated 1.68% so far during the current month, following two successive months of decline. In January GBP/BGN went down 3.09%.

On Monday (February 22nd) GBP/BGN trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United Kingdom

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

At 11:00 GMT the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will announce the results from its February survey, encompassing 17 major industries. The gauge of industrial orders in the UK stood in negative territory for a 9th consecutive period in the three months to January, as it came in at a reading of -15, falling from -7 in the three-months to December.

This indicator reflects the net balance between companies, that registered an increase in industrial orders during the respective period of three months and those, that registered a drop. It is the oldest indicator, released from the UK private sector, to show the development tendency in the country's industry. The Industrial Trends Survey by the Confederation of British Industry provides expert qualitative opinion from senior manufacturing executives, on past and expected trends in output, exports, prices, costs, investment intentions, business confidence and capacity utilization. A level above zero suggests that volume of orders is projected to increase, while a level below zero indicates that expectations point to lower volumes. If the survey showed predominant pessimism for a 10th consecutive period, this would have a limited bearish effect on the sterling.

Correlation with other currency pairs

Taking into account the week ended on February 19th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

GBP/BGN to GBP/USD (0.9219, or very strong)
GBP/BGN to NZD/USD (0.7037, or strong)
GBP/BGN to CHF/BGN (0.4253, or moderate)
GBP/BGN to USD/CAD (0.0944, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to EUR/USD (0.0872, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to AUD/USD (0.0275, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/BGN (-0.0352, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/CHF (-0.2216, or weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/JPY (-0.3921, or moderate)
GBP/BGN to DKK/BGN (-0.5208, or strong)

1. During the examined period GBP/BGN moved almost equally in one and the same direction with GBP/USD.

2. GBP/BGN moved strongly in one and the same direction with NZD/USD during the week, while moving strongly in the opposite direction compared to DKK/BGN.

3. GBP/BGN moved almost independently compared to USD/CAD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/BGN during the period in question. The correlation between GBP/BGN and AUD/USD was almost non-existent.

4. The correlation between GBP/BGN and USD/CHF was insignificant.